Global Warming in the News

It seems the topic of global warming is constantly in the news due to big weather events, continued study and surveys on the issue, and the political agenda of many across the world.  I think both sides can agree that the earth has warmed over the past 100 years.¹  So that is a moot point.  The real issue is what role does human activity play in the process?  Climate scientists have used computer modeling for decades as one way to try to answer this question.²  To simplify this let’s use a simple algebraic equation, 400 = x + y.

Here the number 400 represents the measured historical record of the temperature of the earth.  The x variable represents the overall contribution of natural causes of warming including things like naturally occurring CO₂, cloud formation, solar radiation, and soot from volcanoes.  Likewise the y variable represents the overall contribution to warming from human sources like fossil fuel combustion, soot formation, and deforestation.  Modeling suggests the historical record of temperature variation over the past 50 – 100 years cannot be explained on the basis of just the natural variables.³  This implies humans have affected global warming.  The problem occurs when one looks at the details of these models.  Going back to our simple equation one should note there are multiple (x, y) combinations that are solutions.  For example; (200, 200), (100, 300), (350, 50), and (400, 0) are all valid solutions.  What is the true balance between natural causes and human causes of global warming?  Is it 50:50? 80:20? 100:0?  When one looks at estimates of the global carbon balance there is a total annual inflow of CO₂ into the atmosphere of 157.5 billion tons.  The estimated human contribution is 7.1 billion tons or 4.5% of the total.⁴  Chemical equilibrium studies suggest that of any new carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere at least 80-90% of it is reabsorbed, largely byplants and the oceans.  In this simplified treatment we are also ignoring some important variables like water vapor, solar radiation, and effects due to the little ice age.⁵  Can humans really be the primary cause of the current planetary warming trend?  Taken on the whole it does not seem very reasonable, but is more driven by politics than by science.

1. For example, see http://junksciencecom.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/6a010536b58035970c01761657c94f970c.png (accessed 2013.04.11)

2. Summary for Policymakers, The Third Assessment Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, p. 8.

3. ibid, p. 11.

4. Eubanks, L. P., Middlecamp, C. H., Heltzel, C. E., and Keller, S. W.; Chemistry in Context, 6^th ed. McGraw-Hill, New York, 2009, Ch. 3.

5. Robinson, A. B., Robinson, N. E., and Soon, W.; Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm

Andromeda Galaxy and Borel’s Law

I believe some of the strongest arguments in favor of a creation based interpretation of the data of history are from observations of design.  Of course evolutionists debate this point and claim we only observe the “appearance” of design.  One way creationists talk about design is from Borel’s law which states “events whose probability is sufficiently small never occur”.¹  Borel further states the numerical value of “sufficiently small” depends upon the scale, for example, on the earth vs. in the universe.  Creationists have used Borel’s value for the scale of phenomena in the universe of 1×10^-50 and applied it to the terrestrial scale.  For example, the probability of a sequence of amino acids randomly assembling in the correct order to form a single protein of cytochrome a is 1×10^-60.²  In most cases the probabilities are so low for forming just one protein that creationists rationally conclude random chance events can not lead to the formation of a living cell which requires at least 382 proteins.³

I recently found a critique of how creationists use Borel’s Law, but the calculations presented there were seriously flawed.⁴  Briefly, they claimed the probability to see light from the Andromeda galaxy by the human eye was less than the 1×10^-50 number used by creationists.  But a human can see the Andromeda galaxy with the naked eye.  The event was predicted by Borel’s Law to be impossible, but yet we see it.  Thus, the creationist use of Borel’s law is falsified.

However, this calculation misses two points which have a huge impact on the final result.  First, implicit in their calculation is a single emission of photons from the galaxy.  In reality a star is emitting on the order of 10⁴³ photons per second.  Second, the human eye has about 100 million rods to detect these photons from a distant star or galaxy.  So, when these factors are taken into account the human eye is estimated to be detecting approximately 25 photons per second of light from the Andromeda galaxy. As that famous French detective Inspector Clouseau has said, “case sol ved.”

Yes, there are questions about the specific cut-off probability for an event to be labeled as statistically impossible.  However, the general principle in Borel’s Law is well-founded and not maliciously misapplied by creationists.

1. Borel, Emil; Probability and Life, Dover, New York, 1962. (translated from the original, Les Probabilite et la Vie, 1943, Presses Universitaire de France)

2. For example http://www.parentcompany.com/creation_essays/essay44.htm (accessed 2013.02.23)

3. Glass, John; Nacyra Assad-Garcia, Nina Alperovich, Shibu Yooseph, Matthew R. Lewis, Mahir Maruf, Clyde A. Hutchison III, Hamilton O. Smith *, and J. Craig Venter. “Essential genes of a minimal bacterium”. PNAS 2005, 103, 425–430. http://www.pnas.org/content/103/2/425

4. http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Borel%27s_Law (accessed 2013.02.23)

Now Hiring Part-time Tour Guides

As the Science Center continues to grow so does our staffing needs! We just posted a paid job opening for part-time tour guides on our Job Opportunities page on our website (located under the About tab). Please pass this information on to your friends.

Job Description

• Accepting college through adult applicants.
• Ability to present the Museum tours to a diversity of age groups.
• Ability to oversee guests in our outdoor adventure park, Truassic Park.
• Must be available on Fridays and Saturdays (Sept. – May)
• Must be available weekdays and Saturdays (June – August)

Mastodon Tooth Prize

Mammut americanum Mastodon tooth replica

I will be representing the Museum at the Tuscarawas County Patriot Rally in New Philadelphia on Saturday, February 23 from 10 am to 4 pm at New Towne Mall. The theme is “Uncover the Mysteries of History”. I encourage you to come out and visit with the various local historical attractions and museums that will be there.

Prizes
You can participate in a Scavenger Hunt for the chance to win fabulous prizes! The Museum is donating a door prize of an American Mastodon tooth replica (pictured above). I also hear that the first 500 kids who come will receive a free Patriot Rally drawstring bag!

Mastodons
This exact replica (pictured above) was cast from the original tooth found by explorers of Scott Hollow Cave, Monroe County, West Virginia. Our museum has replica bones of the Burning Tree Mastodon on exhibit in our Science Hall. The original bones were found at the Burning Tree Golf Course in, Newark, Ohio.

Hope to see you at the rally.

Cindy

In U.S., 46% Hold Creationist View of Human Origins

A recent Gallup poll has shown that most Americans do not agree with the theory of evolution being the cause for life.The idea that an intelligent source is the cause for the universe is held above naturalistic processes. That is why Akron Fossils & Science Center is important. We present the flaws of uniformitarianism and discuss why intelligent design and Creation science better fit the evidence and data.

June 1, 2012 Gallup Poll

New Family Lecture Series

Snowflake captured in super glue. Courtesy of Cindy Julius

Akron Fossils is starting a new feature with our lecture series in 2013.  We are adding hands-on crafts and activities suitable for younger audiences that complement the lecture series.  The lecture portion will generally remain on the more technical side, as it has been since its inception.  The first family lecture will be “Snowflake Science” presented by our very own Education Director, Ms. Cindy Julius, Sat., Jan. 12, beginning at 7 p.  Please join us for some hot chocolate, snowflake fun, and design science.  More details may be found at our website, akronfossils.com.

Mayan Calendar Hype

Mayan ziggurat site Tikal
in Guatemala

Here are a few helpful quotes from articles about that end-of-the-world hype surrounding misunderstandings about the Mayan calendar.

Although Akron Fossils & Science Center does not share all of the views expressed by the authors in the entirety of their article’s we do believe that each author has valuable insights worth reading.

From Tim Chaffey:

December 21, 2012, has been the most popular Doomsday date since January 1, 2000, failed to fulfill catastrophic predictions.